Michael Arrington, founder of a network of technology blogs including TechCrunch, published an interesting piece yesterday on new media business models and a hypothetical example based on the New York Times (What If: The New New York Times).

If anyone has any clue on where new media is headed, Arrington would be on the short list. Of course no one can say for sure what will happen. But we do know the traditional media business is going through a painful metamorphosis. Will the end result look like a mangled human fly (but with loving eyes) or an uber-powerful transformer?

Arrington’s hypothetical scenario asks: “would happen if the top 10% of the writers at the NY Times just…walked out”? Could a “New” New York Times emerge?

Interesting tidbits in the article abound:

• The NYT today, at $1B, is about 80% smaller than just 5 years ago. Wow.
• AOL, meantime, has amassed an army of 1,500 (!) journalists (as Arrington says “Journalists still matter”)
• NYT employs over 9,300 employees, of which approximately 400 “or so” are writers

As I read through it, I was reminded of a talk Barry Schuler gave last week about a similar topic. In essence he painted a picture of traditional media being stuck in “death valley”. Older business models were disintegrating faster than new ones could be invented.

And that pretty much sums of where we are today. Sure, yes, we know the dynamics are changing. Society is evolving online (for better or worse). At some point though, for long-term sustainability, new business models and economics must emerge. Where will they come from? What will they look like? And who will be the new faces gracing BusinessWeek… oops, make that, TechCrunch?

It reminds me of a dental visit I made this morning. While I was waiting two teenagers were talking about iPhones and Facebook. One kept asking the other, “but, is it free?” Pandora? Neat! Free? Yes, ok good.

This upcoming generation, as has been well-documented and reported, likes FREE. They know FREE. And the Internet + FREE go hand-in-hand. Oddly, you don’t get what you pay for. You get more. Way more. FREE office applications, FREE music, FREE games, FREE CRM, FREE videos, FREE TV (Live stream of CNN for example).

So who pays the bill?

Advertisers do. Or at least they are supposed to. They’re flat broke too. Signs, however, point to increasing budgets finally.

My best guess at this point would be you either need a Government bailout. Or venture capital.

As Arrington concludes: “Lean journalism, for the win.”

[Source: TechCrunch, What If: The New New York Times]

Clinton Stark
Co-Founder, Editor-in-Chief, Fan of Napa (and Diet Coke)

Clint co-founded StarkSilverCreek and writes about social media, arts, wine, indie film, and his trusty Droid. An aging ice hockey player, he tries in vain to direct Loni in SSC videos. Originally from Ottawa, Canada, Clint is a Silicon Valley and new media entrepreneur. From the early PC clone days in the 80’s, to the explosion of telecom and networking in the 90’s, and now to social networking, Web 2.0 and software-as-a-service, Clint has successfully built businesses and start-ups into multi-million dollar operations. Recently as VP marketing he spearheaded the launch of a $110M company. But that was then.

Twitter: @clintonstark More: articles bio

Stay up-to-date on All Things West Coast
Join: StarkSilverCreek Facebook Fan page
Follow: twitter.com/SSCWestCoast
Go mobile: SSC iPhone app
Send press/requests/events to: press@starksilvercreek.com